The fallout from this year's premium shock did not wait for open enrollment. When the enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025, the price of 2026 coverage moved for almost everyone who buys it on the individual market, and it moved sharply. Average premium payments for subsidized Marketplace enrollees more than doubled heading into 20261, and effectuated enrollment is on track to fall from 22.3 million to roughly 17.5 million2.
For a Marketplace plan, that is not an abstract policy shift. It is a wave of confused, price sensitive members calling right now, mid plan year, to ask why their bill changed, whether they still qualify for help, and whether a cheaper plan exists. Those calls are happening months before the next open enrollment window even opens, and the decision to stay or leave is being made on them well ahead of any renewal file. Marketplace member retention is being decided on the member service line today, and most plans are barely listening to it.
The 2026 reset changed who is on the phone
The expiration of the enhanced tax credits did more than raise prices. It changed the mix of people calling. A disproportionate share of the enrollment drop, about 27 percent, came from households just above the old subsidy cliff, even though that group made up only 3 percent of plan selections the year before2. These are members who lost eligibility for help entirely and are now weighing coverage on price alone.
The result is higher call volume made up of harder calls. Billing questions, subsidy confusion, and plan comparison requests are exactly the interactions that resolve least often on the first attempt. And first call resolution is where this problem turns expensive: SQM Group benchmarks put first call resolution for complaint calls at 47 percent, the lowest of any call type and far below the healthcare insurance average3. The same research shows that in a given year, roughly 40 percent of customers who do not get their issue resolved on the first call defect to another company4. A price shocked Marketplace member whose billing question is transferred twice and never resolved is not a service statistic. That member is a renewal the plan is about to lose.
Churn shows up in the call before it shows up in the data
Retention data is a lagging indicator. By the time a member appears in a disenrollment report, the decision was made and the window to intervene has closed. The signal that predicts that outcome is audible much earlier, in the tone and content of the call itself.
What this looks like in practice: a member calls in October asking why the subsidy that covered most of the premium shrank. The agent explains the tax credit change, cannot fully resolve the affordability concern, and the call ends. Nothing flags the member as at risk. No follow up is triggered. In January the member is gone, and the plan learns about it from a report rather than from the call that predicted it.
Why sampling misses the members who matter most
Most plans still evaluate member calls the way they did a decade ago, by pulling a small manual sample and scoring it after the fact. When a plan reviews less than 5 percent of its member calls, the leaving decision almost always forms inside the 95 percent no one listens to. The signals that predict churn, the second unresolved call, the audible frustration, the mention of a competitor's premium, sit in the calls that were never selected.
The gap is widest exactly where the 2026 population is most exposed. Non-English calls are rarely part of a manual sample at all, yet language access is where affordability confusion compounds fastest. A sampling model does not just miss volume. It systematically misses the members whose experience is deteriorating and who are most likely to leave.
What to look for in a member call intelligence approach
The problem is not that plans lack member data. It is that the most predictive data, what members actually say when they call, is captured and then discarded. When evaluating how to close that gap, plans should look for:
- Coverage of every member call, not a sample, so at-risk members are identified rather than missed by chance
- Sentiment and risk detection that surfaces the members most likely to disenroll while there is still time to act
- Translation and scoring of calls in every language your membership actually calls in, so non-English members are not the least understood
- Transparency the plan controls, with the logic and the intelligence owned by the plan rather than a vendor
- Signal that reaches retention and enrollment teams quickly enough to intervene before renewal, not after
Claro by Mizzeto was built for this. Member Experience Insights is one of four capability areas within Claro, and it is the one focused specifically on this problem: identifying at-risk members before they disenroll, using the actual content and tone of their calls rather than a survey that arrives months later. It reviews 100 percent of member calls, scores sentiment and risk across every language a plan's membership calls in, and surfaces the members most likely to leave in time for retention teams to act, so outreach can happen before open enrollment closes rather than after the member is already gone.
The bottom line
The 2026 subsidy reset handed Marketplace plans a harder, more price sensitive population and a narrower margin for error. Retention this year will not be won by surveys that arrive after the decision or reports that confirm a loss already booked. It will be won on the call, in the moment a member is deciding whether the plan is worth the new price. Plans that can hear every one of those calls will keep members that sampling based plans never knew were leaving.
To see how full call member intelligence identifies at-risk Marketplace members before they disenroll, send us a sample of your calls and we will return scored transcripts before you commit to anything.
References
1. KFF. Analysis of premium payment increases for subsidized Marketplace enrollees following the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits, 2026. www.kff.org
2. Congressional Budget Office. Projected effects of the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits on Marketplace enrollment, 2026, including subsidy cliff impact by income band. www.cbo.gov
3. SQM Group. First call resolution benchmarks by call type, healthcare and insurance industry comparison. www.sqmgroup.com
4. SQM Group. Customer defection rates following unresolved first-call issues. www.sqmgroup.com




















